Insights
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Analysis and commentary from our trading desks. Direct, opinionated and useful — or we don't publish it.
The crude spread that nobody is talking about
WTI-Brent has been range-bound for six weeks. That is not stability — it is compression. Here is what happens when it breaks.
EM carry is not dead. It is just expensive.
The carry trade has survived every obituary written for it. But the cost of being wrong has never been higher. A framework for sizing it in the current regime.
Copper's structural bid and the noise around it
Every energy transition narrative eventually runs through copper. Separating the genuine structural demand from the speculative overlay is harder than it looks.
Front-end volatility and what it is pricing
Short-dated rate vol has been elevated for three months. The market is not confused — it is hedging a distribution of outcomes that is genuinely wide.
Dispersion is back. Here is how to trade it.
Index vol has compressed while single-stock vol has not. That gap is a signal, not an anomaly. A practical look at dispersion strategies in the current environment.
Gas storage, winter risk and the optionality nobody is buying
European gas storage is full. That is the headline. The reality is more nuanced — and the tail risk for a cold winter is being systematically underpriced.
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